
Disclaimer: I don’t know anything, I’m just thinking.
1. Elon Musk, who nobody voted for, is unilaterally gutting and eliminating government agencies without the consent of Congress.
I take it that most of my subscribership agrees this is bad, but for those who don’t: Musk is the entire reason that while in November, I thought we might be able to muddle through the next four years, that’s now in serious doubt. In no particular order: (i) yes, Virginia, it is a constitutional crisis; (ii) the current substance-induced-spiral version of Musk is very dumb (in the wisdom as opposed to the intelligence sense, to use the Dungeons & Dragons distinction, though I make no guarantees about the intelligence sense either) and could easily break a load-bearing part of the government; (iii) by all appearances, Musk is a true believer in racial hierarchy, and even though this is Substack I shouldn’t have to explain that that’s bad; (iv) as the USAID has made clear, he’s just plain evil.
2. The crucial task of 2025 is severing Musk from the government.
Removing him wouldn’t end all threats (any movement should keep caretaker President Mike Johnson as a stretch goal), but only he and those under his direction are acting like they have absolute impunity. Speed is of the essence: whole government departments could go down in months, plus there’s a tail risk they accidentally delete the economy. Winning control of the House in the 2026 election is essential (and honestly not too hard; the Senate is another matter unless, say, Joni Ernst continues to betray everything she’s ever said she stood for), but might be too little too late. Elected Democrats can and should do all they can to slow things down, but can’t stop anything without the cooperation of the courts (whom we’ll get to later) or at least some of the GOP. You should continue to call your elected Republicans, as I have been doing, but it’s increasingly clear that in almost all cases, this is futile because they are cowards.
3. The best and maybe last hope is street protest.
Research led by Erica Chenoweth shows that nonviolent anti-government movements that activate at least 1 percent of the population usually work, and those that activate at least 3.5 percent of the population almost always work. 3.5 percent of the US would be 12 million people, which would be unprecedented—it would be three times the size of the 2017 Women’s March. In other ways, it’s not so big: it’s about the same as the number of Sanders primary voters in 2016, and about one in six 2024 Harris voters in the general. No number gives a guarantee—getting a big turnout and then declaring mission accomplished is losing—but the causal pathways from mass protest to regime concessions or change are well-studied: either the government slightly overreacts which just intensifies the protests, or the government tries to violently overreact and, at least this year, the security forces haven’t yet been remade to have the stomach for it if protests remain nonviolent.
4. So what can get people on the streets?
The vital moment will be when the Supreme Court rules on impoundment. I’d still guess five or six of them would side against the administration (and if not, we’ll have a new number one protest target.) The Trump administration could flat-out ignore them or, probably more likely, say they’re abiding by the ruling and then ignore it; in either case, that’s the ballgame if we let that stand. Trouble is this is a very dry issue: not the kind that usually gets twelve million on the streets. The simplest and mosty effective motivation is corruption: everyone already knows Trump is corrupt (though some admire it), and the case against Musk is easy to make: he gave $280 million to Trump’s campaign and now he has our Social Security Numbers. Still, given that America treats nothing as real until it sees it on a screen, what’s needed is one viral image, one clip that crystallizes the anger of the populace like George Floyd did in 2020. For the sake of nonviolence, I hope it’s not a corpse. In the meantime, the ball’s gotta roll; President’s Day would be an appropriate time to join in. Squabble up.
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Anyway, Chiefs 27 Eagles 24, I think.
Everything you say and more. Thanks for speaking out. As a Canadian living in Canada there is little concrete that I can do. My wife and I watch the television and yell at it with no effect except upon our appetites. Good luck and best wishes to everyone.
Thank you.
I don't have many subscribers, either here or on Bluesky, because I don't write enough. But thanks for unintentionally reminding me that I am a writer, and I have a Substack. I have 31 subscribers. I haven't written an actual full-scale Substack/Dreamwidth post since September. I've got a couple in the works, 1 about the Rifleman, another about New York Dolls, who knows when. I am also capable of writing thoughts about politics. As a matter of fact...
I have written recently: to my congressman Jason Crow, to my Senators Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper, several times. Calling is good too though the phone lines are overwhelmed, so I write actual letters that I send in envelopes. Email is less effective. I'm not assuming that I'm persuading them to believe something they wouldn't believe if I hadn't written, but to let them know that I'm among the few or many who'll have their back if they do the right thing. (Fwiw, I wanted 'em to vote against the Laken Riley Act and they did, not 'cos I wrote, rather 'cos they knew it was bad, but other senators who probably also knew it was bad did vote for it. Also wrote 'em about Musk madness and I'm going to again.)
Another thing I've done is to lend a sympathetic ear to a friend in the civil service who may be getting the ground yanked out from under her.